Odds and Randomness in Pick Games: What Past Results Say

Where the odds come from

A Pick game draws each digit from 0 to 9. A Pick 2 has 10 × 10 = 100 possible results, a Pick 3 has 1,000, a Pick 4 has 10,000 and a Pick 5 has 100,000. Matching every digit in the exact order is one of those results.

Odds by game

The table lists each Pick game with its number of possible results and the odds of matching one exact sequence of digits. Each extra digit multiplies the possible results, so the number after "1 in" grows with every digit a game adds.

Exact order is the same for every number of a game, whatever its digits: a number is one sequence, and the odds depend only on how many digits the game draws.

Odds by repeat pattern

Each row is a repeat pattern, which says how many of a number's digits repeat. The Example column shows one number with that pattern, and Orders counts the different sequences its digits can be drawn in.

Exact order is the same on every row of a game, whatever the pattern. A box play matches any of the orders, so its odds depend on how many digits repeat: the more orders, the smaller the number after "1 in". Box is offered only where a game's rules allow it.

Every draw is independent

The draws have no memory. Yesterday's result does not make any number more or less likely today. A number that has not come up for a long time has no better chance of being the next one, and a number that came up often has no worse chance.

This is also why 0037 and 7777 are exactly as likely as any other four-digit number, even though they look different to us.

What a frequency count is

A frequency count says how many times each digit appeared among the verified results we hold, inside a window of dates, with the number of draws (the sample) next to it. It describes the past, and it is only as complete as the draws we received: some past draws may be missing, and the page says how many. The Fireball is not counted: the counts use the regular digits only.

What a frequency count is not

A count is not a forecast. In a small sample, digits differ by chance alone: in 30 draws each digit is expected about 3 times in a position, and some will land above that and some below. Over many more draws the shares move closer to one tenth, but they still say nothing about the next draw.

Hot and cold, in plain words

On our frequency pages, the section called Hot and cold digits names the digits with the highest and the lowest count in a window, and the tables mark them "most often" and "least often". Hot and cold are only names for those two labels in the dates shown, and the window is always written beside them. They do not say which digit comes next. We label digits only when the window holds at least 30 verified draws.

Quick picks

A quick pick makes random digits in your browser. It is for fun and it does not change your chances: every number has the same chance of being drawn.

Results by state

• South Carolina Pick 3
• Texas Pick 3
• Virginia Pick 4 with FIREBALL
• Michigan Daily 4
• Kentucky Pick 3
• Florida Pick 3
• New York Numbers

All results