Lottery Strategy: What Can and Can't Change Your Odds
No strategy changes the draw. Every Pick draw is independent, and each exact number has the same chance as any other: 1 in 1,000 in Pick 3. You choose how many orders of your digits a play covers and how much you spend. That changes what your ticket covers, and the odds of each number stay the same.
What a strategy can change
Each digit of a Pick draw is chosen at random. No system or chart changes which digits come out, so no strategy changes the odds of the draw itself.
You control two things: how many orders of your digits one play covers, and how much you spend. A box covers more orders than a straight. Playing more numbers covers more results, and each one costs the price of a play. Neither changes the chance of any single number.
The odds in each game
The odds of an exact match depend only on how many digits a game draws. Every number in a game has the same odds, whatever its digits.
| Game | Possible results | Exact order |
|---|---|---|
| Pick 2 | 100 | 1 in 100 |
| Pick 3 | 1,000 | 1 in 1,000 |
| Pick 4 | 10,000 | 1 in 10,000 |
| Pick 5 | 100,000 | 1 in 100,000 |
What a box covers
A box play matches when your digits come out in any order. The more different digits your number has, the more orders it has, and the more draws a box on it matches. When all the digits are the same there is only one order, and a box is the same as a straight.
A box matches more often, but that does not make it the better play. Each lottery decides what a box costs, and not every game offers one. The official rules of your game are the ones that count.
| Game | Digits | Example | Orders | Exact order | Any order (box) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pick 2 | All different | 12 | 2 | 1 in 100 | 1 in 50 |
| Pick 2 | A pair | 11 | 1 | 1 in 100 | 1 in 100 |
| Pick 3 | All different | 123 | 6 | 1 in 1,000 | 1 in 167 |
| Pick 3 | One pair | 112 | 3 | 1 in 1,000 | 1 in 333 |
| Pick 3 | All three the same | 111 | 1 | 1 in 1,000 | 1 in 1,000 |
| Pick 4 | All different | 1234 | 24 | 1 in 10,000 | 1 in 417 |
| Pick 4 | One pair | 1123 | 12 | 1 in 10,000 | 1 in 833 |
| Pick 4 | Two pairs | 1122 | 6 | 1 in 10,000 | 1 in 1,667 |
| Pick 4 | Three the same | 1112 | 4 | 1 in 10,000 | 1 in 2,500 |
| Pick 4 | All four the same | 1111 | 1 | 1 in 10,000 | 1 in 10,000 |
| Pick 5 | All different | 12345 | 120 | 1 in 100,000 | 1 in 833 |
| Pick 5 | One pair | 11234 | 60 | 1 in 100,000 | 1 in 1,667 |
| Pick 5 | Two pairs | 11223 | 30 | 1 in 100,000 | 1 in 3,333 |
| Pick 5 | Three the same | 11123 | 20 | 1 in 100,000 | 1 in 5,000 |
| Pick 5 | Three the same and a pair | 11122 | 10 | 1 in 100,000 | 1 in 10,000 |
| Pick 5 | Four the same | 11112 | 5 | 1 in 100,000 | 1 in 20,000 |
| Pick 5 | All five the same | 11111 | 1 | 1 in 100,000 | 1 in 100,000 |
Hot numbers, streaks and patterns
Every draw is independent. The draw has no memory, so a number that came up often has no edge, and a number that has not come up in a long time is no closer to being drawn. Streaks and patterns are easy to spot in past results, and they say nothing about the next draw.
Hot and cold are names for the digits that came up most and least often in a window of dates. A frequency count describes the past draws in that window, and we always write the window beside it. Calling a digit hot or cold does not change the odds of any digit.
Playing in a pool
In a pool, a group buys plays together and splits the cost. Between them they cover more numbers than each person could alone.
A pool does not change the odds of a single play: each number has the same chance it would have if one person played it. It helps to agree up front on who pays what and who keeps the tickets.
Play within a budget
Decide how much you will spend before you play, and stop when you reach it. Covering more numbers or more draws costs more, and the odds of each play stay the same.
If playing stops being fun, or you spend more than you planned, the responsible play page lists free, confidential help in the U.S. and Canada.
Work out the odds of your number · Odds and randomness · Straight or box · How often each digit came up, by game and window of dates
Lottery strategy questions
Is there a strategy that improves the odds of Pick 3?
No. Each exact Pick 3 number has odds of 1 in 1,000 in every draw, whatever system you use. A box covers more orders of your digits and more plays cover more numbers, but each play keeps its own odds.
Do hot numbers, or numbers that have not come up in a while, come out more?
No. Hot means a digit came up often in a past window of dates, and we write that window beside the label. Every draw is independent, so a past count or a long gap does not change the odds.
Is box better than straight?
A box matches more draws, because it covers every order of your digits. Better is another matter: each lottery's rules decide what a box costs, and some games don't offer one.
Does playing the same number every day help?
It doesn't change the odds. Every draw is independent, so your number has the same chance each day as any other number. If you like your number, keep it; it just has no edge.
Results by state
More game guides
- Pick 2Two digits, from 00 to 99. In Puerto Rico it's Pega 2.
- Pick 3Three digits, from 000 to 999. You'll also see it as Cash 3, Daily 3, Play 3 or Numbers.
- Pick 4Four digits, from 0000 to 9999. It also goes by Win 4, Cash 4, Daily 4 or Play 4.
- Pick 5Five digits, from 00000 to 99999. Some lotteries name it Georgia 5, Play 5 or DC-5.
- Cash PopChoose numbers from 1 to 15. One is drawn each time, and each number has a 1 in 15 chance.
- Straight or boxExact order or any order: what each way of matching means.
- Odds and randomnessWhere the odds come from, why draws are independent, and what a count means.
- How monitors workWhat a saved number checks, and what it does not.
- GlossaryStraight, box, combo, Fireball and other Pick terms, each in a line or two.
Play for fun
Set a budget before you play and stick to it. The lottery is entertainment, not a way to make money.